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The Iranian regime is primed for total collapse

Mon, 18 Sep 2023 18:16:47 +0000

Khamenei knows he can’t offer concessions, since the smallest shift could trigger another uprising across the deprived and suppressed nation

Telegraph | Maryam Rajavi | September 17, 2023

Almost exactly a year ago, a remarkable nationwide uprising unfolded in Iran. It witnessed people from all walks of life chanting “death to [regime supreme leader Ali] Khamenei” and “down with the oppressor”. These powerful words reflected the popular rejection of the clerical regime. In mere days, the uprising became a firestorm of dissent that encompassed every province and shook the ruling theocracy to its core.

In response, the regime embarked on a campaign to ruthlessly suppress the revolt. The past year has been unmistakably characterized by the people’s uprising on the one hand, and the regime’s relentless crackdown on the other. However, when we contemplate the future of Iran, a fundamental question arises: which one of these forces will ultimately shape the nation’s destiny?

The mullahs want to convey the impression that the balance of power has reverted to its pre-uprising status. But the daily realities experienced by the people paint a starkly contrasting narrative. A bankrupt economy, unbridled inflation, chronic unemployment, and institutionalized discrimination are contributing to a situation in which Iranian society is primed to erupt again.

The events of September 2022 revealed widespread discontent transcending class, region, generation and gender. It was led by women. The middle and lower classes came to the streets in major urban centres and smaller towns. And in spite of the regime’s four-decade endeavor to exert control over universities, students played a leading role in the uprising, often receiving resolute support from fellow citizens. There was also unprecedented participation from high school students. This epitomized the people’s fervent longing to oust the theocracy, which, for over four decades, has clung to power through brutal repression. Despite its brutality, the regime has failed to eliminate the organised resistance.

Western analysts, taken aback by the profound societal discontent, might have been less surprised had they been attuned to recent developments in Iranian society. Several nationwide uprisings have unfolded since December 2017, steadily increasing in frequency, scale and social inclusiveness, while the demands of participants have grown progressively radical.

All of which is compounded by the fact that the regime is woefully incapable of enacting major economic, political or social changes. It knows that any substantial change would risk spiraling out of control, intensifying the populace’s desire for self-governance and liberty, and ultimately hastening its own disintegration. Consequently, the regime can only rely on short-term, constrained measures to stifle dissent or temporarily placate the public. It has no long-term strategy to avert enduring conflict.

Khamenei is acutely aware that a larger uprising looms on the horizon. Yet his response remains confined to consolidating power within loyalist ranks, poised to enforce future suppressive measures. This only serves to bolster the people’s calls for a comprehensive regime change, escalating social tensions and setting the stage for a more devastating revolt.

The Iranian people are resolute in their quest for freedom. The West must now recalibrate its policies consistent with this reality in mind, and abandon the politics of appeasement. It should refrain from offering concessions to the regime, designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, and acknowledge the Iranian people’s inalienable right to resist against tyranny.

Maryam Rajavi is the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/17/the-iranian-regime-is-primed-for-total-collapse

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NCRI Stands as Viable Democratic Alternative for Iran

Mon, 14 Aug 2023 22:21:01 +0000

Global Consensus: NCRI Stands as Viable Democratic Alternative for Iran
Townhall | Ivan Sascha Sheehan | Jul 16, 2023

Picture the vibrant suburbs of Paris as they became the epicenter of an electrifying gathering earlier this month—the Free Iran World Summit 2023. The event boasted an extraordinary lineup of over 500 global leaders, luminaries, and influential personalities, including current and former officials, presidents, prime ministers, ministers, and lawmakers from the United States, Europe, and the Middle East. They united in resolute support of Iran’s main opposition movement and its transition plan as an alternative to the incumbent theocracy.

Among the attendees were a constellation of notable figures like 2024 US presidential candidate Mike Pence, former prime ministers Stephen Harper of Canada, Guy Verhofstadt of Belgium, and Liz Truss of the UK, and seasoned former National Security Advisors Ambassador John Bolton and General James Jones. Joining them were several renowned members of the European foreign policy establishment, alongside sitting members of the US Congress Lance Gooden (R-TX) and Raul Ruiz (D-CA).

These prominent figures voiced unyielding support for the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the largest and most enduring opposition movement in Iran. They rallied behind the NCRI’s Ten-point Plan, a comprehensive roadmap for a future democratic republic, first outlined by the NCRI’s President-elect, Maryam Rajavi.

The timing of the NCRI event couldn’t have been more propitious. Amidst the formidable challenges of nuclear weapons development and terrorist by the regime, a central question emerges: What lies beyond the brittle regime as an alternative? Cunningly, the mullahs have spun a deceptive web, propagating the notion that no viable alternative exists—a ploy to perpetuate its iron grip on power.

However, the Iranian people have unveiled a clear vision and an authentic alternative. Speaking before thousands of impassioned attendees at the Free Iran event on July 1, former US vice presidential candidate Joseph Lieberman declared, “We can never acknowledge that there is no alternative to a totalitarian government, certainly not in Iran. … It is a democratic republic. … And Iran is closer to that today than ever before because the regime is weaker than it’s ever been before.”

This sentiment reverberates through the very core of the nationwide protests in Iran, as impassioned chants thunder: “Death to the tyrant, be it the Shah or the mullahs,” and “Monarchy, mullahs, 100 years of crime!” Iranians stand united in vehement rejection of a despotic return to monarchy-led dictatorship. Yet, the path to a democratic republic demands deft navigation to avoid the pitfalls encountered by nations in the throes of transformative regime change.

A political alternative is not something that can be spontaneously created overnight. Its creation requires patient cultivation and a meticulous struggle over time. A substantive alternative to the current regime embodies certain distinctive characteristics: a robust organizational structure, unwavering domestic and international support, competent leadership, a clear action plan for the future, and an unequivocal rejection of all forms of dictatorship. The NCRI has emerged as a paragon embodying these qualities.

Since 1981, the movement has weathered the storms of a prolonged and arduous struggle against the prevailing religious tyranny. With the help of its main constituent, the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), the coalition has defied the suffocating clutches of religious fascism, consolidating its organizational structure, crafting a comprehensive plan, and displaying unwavering resolve—paying the price of resistance day in and day out.

Kazem Gharibadai, deputy for legal affairs to the Judiciary Chief recently revealed that not a single meeting with European countries transpires without Tehran raising the issue of the MEK, which Tehran deeply fears as an existential threat. Such concern was palpable when, on June 10, President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran beseeched his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, to halt and prohibit the Free Iran rally.

Eager to appease Tehran, French authorities complied, but the NCRI successfully contested the ban in court, embarrassing both the Islamic theocracy in Tehran and the advocates of appeasement in Paris. The very fact that the rally took place underscored the opposition’s impressive diplomatic and organizational capabilities.

The NCRI comprises a tapestry of opposition groups and individuals. The MEK has demonstrated remarkable prowess in intelligence-gathering and enjoys fervent grassroots support through its well-organized Resistance Units, which according to regime officials, lead nationwide protests. At the Free Iran rally this month, over 10,000 messages poured in from these units, prompting the regime to panic and hastily announce the arrest of Resistance Unit members—an unmistakable testament to their influence.

The NCRI commands significant international backing. The recent summit witnessed powerful endorsements from 3,600 lawmakers representing 40 countries, including majorities from France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Norway.

The movement’s Ten-Point Plan for a secular, democratic, and non-nuclear Iran has garnered widespread acclaim both at home and abroad. It stands as a tangible and pragmatic roadmap, capable of dexterously navigating the most pressing strategic concerns on the nation’s path to transformation.

Amidst the crucible of adversity, a glimmer of hope emerges in the form of the main organized Iranian opposition—a beacon of resilience and a viable alternative to the nightmarish status quo in Iran. To forge a more secure world and weaken authoritarian regimes across the globe, Western governments must resolutely heed the resounding support of countless luminaries who now rally behind this compelling alternative.

Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan is the executive director of the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Baltimore and an associate professor in the College of Public Affairs. Dr. Sheehan specializes in global terrorism, counterterrorism, U.S. foreign policy, and international conflict management.

https://townhall.com/columnists/ivansaschasheehan/2023/07/16/global-consensus-ncri-stands-as-viable-democratic-alternative-for-iran-n2625763

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If Iranians Are Nostalgic, It Isn’t for the Shah’s Brutality

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 23:10:56 +0000

Newsweek | Hamid Yazdan Panah | 8/1/2023

Over the last year, Iran has witnessed an eruption of resistance against the ruling theocracy. The uprising sparked by the murder of Mahsa Zhina Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman, has rocked the regime to its core. The proto-revolution, which is still gestating, could be the first truly feminist revolution the world has seen. It deserves not only our full support, but also protection from those who seek to undermine or usurp its potential.

This includes those who appear fixated on the past, instead of supporting Iran’s bright future. Lisa Daftari provides an example of this in her recent piece for Newsweek entitled Why Jimmy Carter Owes the Iranian People an Apology. Daftari targets former President Jimmy Carter for his policies towards the deposed shah and ends with the claim that many young Iranians have a “nostalgia” for the former monarchy and seek the return of the shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi.

Iranians have been struggling for democratic change since 1905 and have a rich history of organizing nationwide to get it. Daftari’s argument attempts to place the shah’s failures at the feet of Carter, and set the stage for a return to the monarchy as opposed to daring to dream for more.

Let us begin with some facts. The former shah, who Daftari refers to as the “legitimate ruler of Iran,” was a monarch who ruled with an iron fist. His family came to power through a military coup against the Qajar dynasty, and like most classical dictators his regime was rife with corruption, repression and decadence. During his reign he instituted one party rule in Iran, cracked down on free speech, and created the notorious SAVAK secret police force, to target dissidents.

The historical record is clear and uncontroversial, yet many are now attempting to use the heinous crimes of the Islamic Republic to whitewash the monarchy. This doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Many of the practices that have become synonymous with the Islamic Republic, such as the airing of televised confessions of political opponents began under the SAVAK. The agency itself was largely kept intact by the Islamic Republic and simply rebranded.

Daftari would have you believe that the shah was simply supplanted by Islamists hand-picked by the West, but the shah set the stage for his own downfall. Had he been more tolerant of liberal dissent or provided room for democratic change as many in the West urged, his regime would not have been toppled.

Perhaps the most ironic historical fact that Daftari ignores in her quest for an apology is that the shah already provided one. In November 1978, the shah appeared on national television and provided a feeble apology in an attempt to maintain his rule. In his speech, he acknowledged past mistakes, and stated “I make a commitment to be with you and your revolution against corruption and injustice in Iran.”

This apology was too little and too late for the people of Iran. The masses were against him, and he was deposed in no small part by the masses. The fact that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his Islamist thugs hijacked the aspirations of the nation does not change the shah’s record, or the legitimate democratic aspirations possessed by ordinary Iranians.

What Daftari omits from her piece is the fact that Iranians on the street have made clear in their chants that it is possible to oppose both the past dictatorships and the current Islamic Republic. One of these chants states “Neither Monarchy, nor [Supreme] Leader, [we want] Democracy and Equality.”

The idea that a feminist revolution will culminate in the leadership of the exiled Reza Pahlavi as shah is dubious if not absurd. We should recognize that just like 1978, Iranians are beyond looking for an apology from anyone. They are ready for real freedom, not overthrowing a supreme leader to reinstitute a shah. Our goal should be to ensure that they succeed.

https://www.newsweek.com/if-iranians-are-nostalgic-it-isnt-shahs-brutality-opinion-1816492?amp=1

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Time for Western Democracies to Stand with Iranian People

Sat, 17 Jun 2023 21:54:38 +0000

Townhall | Homeira Hesami | Jun 10, 2023

Iran has been rocked by anti-government protests for years but the uprising that began in September 2022 is fundamentally different. With citizens taking to the streets, they are now demanding not only specific political and economic changes, but rather a complete overhaul of the ruling regime itself. These protests have been met with violent crackdowns by authorities, which has resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. The executions of detainees have come in waves, with at least 130 beautiful young lives taken in since April 21 alone, including three young protesters on May 18.

The protests in Iran have been driven by a variety of factors, including economic hardship, political repression, and widespread corruption. The Iranian people have been struggling with high unemployment rates, inflation, systemic corruption as well as social and political freedoms. People are fed up with the regime’s authoritarian policies, which limit basic freedoms and restrict access to information. Finally, corruption is rampant in Iran, with many officials engaged in not-so-subtle embezzlement of public funds and other financial crimes.

In response, Iranians have taken to the streets in large numbers, in waves of consecutive nationwide protests that first erupted in December 2017 and have continued every year since then, with the exception of a brief lull as a result of the global pandemic.

During the recent uprising, security forces used tear gas, water cannons, and live ammunition to disperse crowds. Over 750 protesters were killed and 30,000 arrested and imprisoned. More recently, regime affiliates have intentionally attacked schoolgirls with poison gas, terrorizing thousands.

On January 13, 2022, a United Nations report urged, “the international community to call for accountability with respect to long-standing emblematic events that have been met with persistent impunity, including the enforced disappearances and summary and arbitrary executions of 1988 and the November 2019 protests.”

“The most serious human rights violations in the Islamic Republic of Iran over the past four decades” have been committed since the death in police custody of Jina Mahsa Amini on 16 September 2022, Javaid Rehman, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran said.

The Iranian government has also taken steps to limit access to information and restrict or totally shut down access to the internet. During the most recent wave of protests, the government shut down access to social media platforms, including Telegram, WhatsApp, and Instagram, in an effort to prevent protesters from organizing and communicating.

Given the severity of the situation in Iran, it is crucial for the international community to support the protesters and demand change. This can be done in several ways.

First and foremost, the international community should not just condemn the Iranian government’s use of violence and repression against protesters but also move to hold the regime fully and practically accountable. Apart from public statements, the free world must act through the United Nations and other international organizations to investigate ongoing crimes against humanity in Iran.

The Iranian people do not need material support from the West but deserve to know that they are not alone in their struggle for human rights, democracy and the establishment of a democratic, secular republic, and that the world is watching and supporting their efforts. So, in lockstep with U.S. Congressional sentiment, the international community should also provide moral and political support to Iranian people by recognizing their legitimate democratic demands and aspirations. These sentiments are duly expressed in House Resolution 100 and in this month’s joint hearing of the Iran Women Congressional Caucus and Iran Human Rights and Democracy Caucus. It is in this context that political and moral support for the people can play a critical role in promoting positive change.

The people’s goal is clearly expressed in the ten-point plan for Iran’s future promoted by the opposition leader Maryam Rajavi and the coalition of pro-democracy opposition groups known as the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). At a Congressional Iranian Women Caucus recently, Congresswomen Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) and Nancy Mace (R-SC) led a hearing which examined the details of that democratic plan as well as ways the U.S. can support the Iranian people.

It is said that in absolute dictatorships, legitimacy of any opposition can best be measured by their organization, perseverance and sacrifice. Despite the apparent void, the Iranian people do have such a treasure. The continuation of protests, despite the brutality, are predictors of an infrastructure sustaining the waves of protests in Iran. It is also telling that women are spearheading the protests and hence have been brutally targeted.

The protests in Iran represent a critical moment and a historic opportunity. The Iranian people are demanding change, and the international community has a responsibility to support their efforts. The free world must move to hold the mullahs truly accountable for violence and repression. We must dispense with that long held mirage that the ayatollahs’ behavior can be modified through concessions. Instead, we must move to support the Iranian people, who are already backed by an indigenous and experienced organized resistance movement eager to establish a democratic, non-nuclear and secular republic.

Homeira Hesami is a former political prisoner in Iran and the chairwoman of the Iranian-American Community of North Texas, a member of the Organization of Iranian American Communities. She is a medical physicist who lives in Texas.

https://townhall.com/columnists/homeira-hesami/2023/06/10/time-for-western-democracies-to-stand-with-iranian-people-n2624320

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Women are leading the revolution to bring down Iran’s regime

Fri, 02 Dec 2022 18:47:24 +0000

Women have been the main target of the Iranian regime — now they’re leading the revolution to bring it down

New York Post | By Maryam Rajavi | November 27, 2022

Brave Iranian women, supported by a generation of young men, educated and knowing their inalienable rights, have openly and ferociously rejected the brutal religious dictatorship of Ali Khamenei and all his loyalists and apologists, in pursuit of justice and equal rights.

They are organized, inspired, self-sacrificing and ready to bring about fundamental change: the regime’s downfall and the establishment of democratic rule that will ensure their life, liberty and prosperity.

Their courageous stand on the streets of almost every city and town in Iran has been met by the welcome support of all of society and the awe and respect of the free world.

Twenty-two-year-old Mahsa Amini’s tragic death in the custody of Tehran’s morality police triggered an explosion of grievances over injustices our people have suffered for more than four decades. The world is witnessing the fruition of a democratic revolution that Ruhollah Khomeini denied 43 years ago when, under a pretense of Islam, he imposed a theocratic dictatorship on the Iranian people.

Iranians, especially women, are ending a monstrous religious fascist experiment that defiled Islam as well as Iran’s culture and civilization by committing the most egregious and inhumane crimes in modern times.

Women have been the main target of the regime’s oppression and discrimination — and thus possess the greatest potential to confront the regime. They have also learned by experience that their rights cannot be realized as long as this regime reigns. They are, therefore, the force for change and rebirth of our nation.

The protesters are using slogans to communicate their aspirations to the world. “Death to Khamenei!” “Death to the oppressor, be it the shah or the [supreme] leader!” “Freedom, Freedom, Freedom!” “Death to the principle of velayat-e faqih [absolute clerical rule]!”

In the first months after the revolution, the mullahs’ regime sought to impose compulsory veiling with its own slogan: “Either the veil or a hit on the head.” Mujahedin-e Khalq women who wore the veil were on the front lines of the women’s huge protest in March 1979. I was there.

In 1981, when our people revolted against religious fascism, they were met with brute force. Many high-school and university students were summarily executed the day after a half-million-strong peaceful demonstration in Tehran, without regard to judicial norms or proper identification. Mass executions intensified in subsequent weeks and months, at times with hundreds executed every night.

Four decades of horrors and massacres, injustices and cruelties have ensued.

Today, the Iranian people have not risen to reform an irreformable and illegitimate regime but rather to end it. They rose in peaceful protest but were met with bullets, torture and executions. In an uneven conflict with heavily armed forces of suppression, they are rightfully resisting with what they have, with rocks, their honor, blood, sweat and tears.

The free world must support the democratic revolution for which my empty-handed compatriots are laying down their lives. When inalienable and God-given rights cannot be secured through peaceful means in the face of a brutal dictatorship lacking any legitimacy, it is incumbent upon women and men of honor to secure them through organized, responsible and self-sacrificing struggle by any means within the bounds of internationally recognized covenants — such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that recognizes the right “to have recourse as a last resort, to rebellion against tyranny and oppression.”

The United States Declaration of Independence, too, holds that “it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish” a government that is destructive to its citizens’ life, liberty and pursuit of happiness.

Faced with ruthless violence from well-armed security forces exhorted to show no mercy and a regime that seeks no less than their wholesale massacre to continue its control and enslavement of the citizenry, there is only one recourse of last resort. As Americans know, freedom does not come free.

The Iranian resistance will continue until the religious dictatorship’s downfall and the establishment of a free, secular, democratic and non-nuclear Iran, in peace and good mutual relations with the world.

Women are at the center of this resistance, and their role in the political leadership as well as economic, cultural and intellectual life will be guaranteed by their struggle. Above and beyond their absolute right to decide what they wear and how to live, they are at the forefront of change.

The Iranian people should not be alone at such a defining moment. It is time for the West to shun the appeasement of the theocracy and support the democratic revolution by recognizing the resistance’s right to defend itself against the brutality of the regime by any means possible.

We’ve always welcomed the support and participation of all Iranians in overthrowing this regime, rejecting dictatorships of the past and establishing a free Iran through popular sovereignty and the ballot box. The path to reclaim our rights and rebuild our future has been charted, and thanks in great part to the country’s women, a free Iran will soon join the free world.

Maryam Rajavi is the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

https://nypost.com/2022/11/27/women-have-been-the-main-target-of-the-iranian-regime-now-theyre-leading-the-revolution-to-bring-it-down/

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Women rising up after decades of Iran regime’s oppression. They need the world’s support

Sun, 16 Oct 2022 22:51:43 +0000

Fort Worth Star-Telegram | BY HOMEIRA HESAMI | OCTOBER 13, 2022

A few weeks after it began, the scale and intensity of Iran’s uprising are tangibly diminishing an already weak regime in Tehran. Women, who for more than four decades bore the brunt of the mullahs’ inequities and misogyny, are braving bullets and demanding a similarly unprecedented response from Western powers. Choosing the path of least resistance, the free world has typically been ambivalent.

But courageous actions of women, brutal murders of the innocent and the persistence of Iranian resistance promise to change that calculus. In mid-September, as embers of anger smoldered below the ashes of oppression in Iran, a group of hard-working Texans who are members of the Iranian-American community, spent a week in New York to protest against the expected appearance of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the United Nations. This predator actually did address the U.N. — only to badmouth democratic values and make a mockery of the rule of law.

Thousands of miles away that week, agents of the mullahs’ regime in Iran bludgeoned to death an innocent young woman named Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for improperly wearing a headscarf. That ignited the protests, which grew with each passing day — as did our disgust at the powers inside and outside the U.N. headquarters who catered to the murderer among them.

Just days earlier, 52 members of Congress had written a bipartisan letter to the Biden administration, trying to prevent Raisi from entering the U.S. Seven of them are Texans, including Rep. Ronny Jackson, a Republican whose district includes part of Wise County. “Given Ebrahim Raisi’s record of supporting terrorism and violating human rights, he should not be afforded the privilege to step onto American soil,” the lawmakers wrote. “We cannot turn a blind eye to perpetrators of gross violations of internationally recognized human rights and cruel regimes that endanger both their people and Americans.

” The protests, which demand regime change in Iran, broke out near Amini’s hometown of Saqqez immediately after her death. Today, demonstrations continue in more than 170 cities in all 31 provinces of Iran. The regime’s attempt to depict the unrest as misplaced outrage or foreign “infiltration” has not tamed the uprising. Nor has the killing of at least 400 protesters and arrests of more than 20,000 people, according to an Iranian women’s group.

The fact that these protests have persisted speaks to the people’s motivation for change.

This time around, the main focus is the end of the regime itself, as demonstrated by the slogan “Death to the dictator!” Sensing this, the regime used force. To us Iranian Americans, it is obvious that this confrontation is mutually existential. Moved by short-sighted economic aims, the international community has typically chosen to equivocate or ignore previous Iran uprisings. The considerable worldwide support today suggests that’s changing. Across the world, people are rallying in solidarity with Iran’s aspiration for a democratic, secular, and non-nuclear republic. The latter is coincidentally also outlined in a bipartisan resolution cosponsored by 257 House members, including 29 Texans.

Conversely, the regime’s repressive instincts are on display. This confrontation will not cease until Tehran’s rulers are held accountable for four decades of carnage, inequity, murder, and terrorism.

If the free world continues to dodge its responsibility, participants in the uprising acknowledge the risks in their collective chants of “We will fight, we will die, we will reclaim Iran.” Video from protests confirms on-the-street executions of protesters by repressive authorities. Western governments and relevant international bodies bear a moral obligation to clearly voice support for the Iranian people’s right to self-determination and democratic regime change.

https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/other-voices/article267233487.html

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Despite Nuclear Talks, Iran Is Still Far from Moderation

Fri, 03 Dec 2021 01:13:14 +0000

Newsweek | TED POE, FORMER U.S. REPRESENTATIVE | 11/30/21

Negotiations to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal resumed in Vienna on Monday despite an uptick in the Islamic Republic’s malign activities. Earlier this month, Iranian forces seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman and conducted comprehensive military exercises, showcasing various military assets including suicide drones like that used in the attempted assassination of Iraqi prime minister Mustafa al-Khadimi.

Mohammad Eslami, the new head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, recently boasted that the country had acquired even larger stockpiles of highly enriched uranium than the International Atomic Energy Agency had estimated in its most recent quarterly report. Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi surely appointed Eslami to the post on the understanding that he would antagonize Western adversaries and undermine the nuclear deal. He is only one of many appointees who embody the ultra-hardline stance of Iran’s new presidential administration.

Raisi’s own reputation and conduct make it extremely difficult to take seriously the announced return to nuclear talks. While some American policymakers are eager to take the proceedings in Vienna as a sign of the new administration’s cooperative tendencies, most know better. They have seen this before, and they know what the outcome will be.

Over 14 years in the U.S. Congress, I saw countless instances of Iranian officials receiving praise for their moderation only to later follow their hardline predecessors in threatening Western interests, undermining global security and violently repressing their own people. Most of my former colleagues have long since abandoned the notion that Iran’s behavior will change through the efforts of its own officials, and realized that such change is much more likely to come from pro-democracy activist groups within Iranian society.

At a Washington conference on Iran last month, former vice president Mike Pence identified some possible sources of change. He described Raisi’s appointment to the presidency as having been “intended to quash internal dissent and intimidate the people of Iran into remaining silent.” But he also noted that the choice of such an openly hardline leader is “a sign of the regime’s growing desperation and vulnerability” and its need to accelerate crackdowns on dissent.

As VP Pence stated, “one of the biggest lies the ruling regime has sold the world is that there is no alternative to the status quo. But there is an alternative—a well-organized, fully prepared, perfectly qualified and popularly supported alternative called the MEK.” Pence described the leader of this opposition movement, Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, as “an extraordinary woman” and “an inspiration to the world.” Pence is right. I dealt with this movement firsthand during my years in Congress, and I have personally met Mrs. Rajavi. It is time for America to invest in true partners in Iran, instead of pleading with the regime’s unpopular figureheads.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi speaks before parliament to defend his cabinet selection in the capital Tehran on August 21, 2021. – Iran’s parliament started reviewing ultraconservative President’s cabinet list in preparation for a vote of confidence expected next week, the assembly’s official media reported.

In January 2018, the Islamic Republic was rocked by a nationwide uprising that encompassed well over 100 cities and towns. Nearly 200 localities took part in another uprising in November 2019, and both movements featured slogans that condemned regime-approved “reformist” and “principlist” politicians as two sides of the same coin. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has since helped to keep a lid on large-scale unrest, Maryam Rajavi, who also addressed last month’s conference, has predicted that the era of the Raisi administration will be defined by an unprecedented increase in “hostility and enmity” between the Iranian regime and its people.

That “hostility and enmity” was on full display in the very election that brought Raisi to power in June 2021, as well as in the previous year’s parliamentary elections. The Iranian people conducted widespread electoral boycotts to show their dissatisfaction with Tehran’s hand-picked politicians.

By some accounts, less than 10 percent of Iran’s eligible voters actually cast votes for Raisi. Most avoided the sham process altogether while some deliberately submitted invalid ballots. The boycott reflected the same desire for change that had defined prior uprisings, but was further motivated by recognition of the leading candidate’s record of violating human rights and suppressing dissent. Raisi had a role in the massacre of 30,000 political prisoners in 1988 and in a crackdown on the 2019 uprising that killed at least 1,500 peaceful protesters.

As domestic conflict emerges in Iran, the international community will have to be prepared to take sides. Much of the world will look to the United States to demonstrate leadership in this regard. The U.S. should waste no time to show support for the Iranian people as they work to consolidate the legacy of the 2018 and 2019 uprisings, as well as the recent electoral boycotts.

Raisi’s past actions are clearly grounds for further sanctions on the Islamic Republic in general, and on the president in particular. They may also be grounds for prosecution at the International Criminal Court, in the event that the United Nations finally conducts a suitable investigation into 1988. The U.S. is in a strong position to take the lead on both issues.

The Western participants in the Iran nuclear deal recently met in Washington and reported having newfound confidence in their unity over Iran policy. Sadly, that unity will be wasted if it is solely directed toward negotiating with the Raisi administration in a futile attempt to foster moderate impulses within the current regime. Assertive policies from without, and pro-democracy pressure from within, are the only hope for wringing change from the Iranian government. Our goal should be to inspire the Iranian people to change that government, once and for all, from dictatorship to democracy.

Judge Ted Poe represented the Second district of Texas in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2005 to 2019 and is the former chairman of the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade in the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

https://www.newsweek.com/despite-nuclear-talks-iran-still-far-moderation-opinion-1653938

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The ‘Butcher of Tehran’ is Terrified of Stepping Foot in the West

Sun, 03 Oct 2021 20:19:44 +0000

Newsweek | Struan Stevenson | 10/1/21

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, dubbed the “butcher of Tehran” due to his involvement in murder, genocide and human rights violations, ducked out of attending the U.N. General Assembly in New York and instead sent a pre-recorded message. Raisi is on the U.S. sanctions list because of his leading role in the 1988 massacre of over 30,000 political prisoners in Iran. It seems likely he chose to stay in Tehran rather than risk causing outrage to tens of thousands of ex-pat Iranians, had he come in person to New York. His predecessors as presidents of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hassan Rouhani, both attended the New York U.N. General Assembly meetings in person, but Raisi is clearly afraid of his murderous past catching up with him if he dares to set foot in the West.

Raisi has publicly admitted and even boasted about his involvement in the 1988 massacre, involving mostly members and supporters of the People’s Mojahedin of Iran / Mojahedin e-Khalq (PMOI/MEK), the main democratic opposition to the despotic mullahs. In fact, in 2009, following a nationwide uprising in protest at the rigged election of Ahmadinejad as president, Raisi said: “As long as the MEK leadership is alive, anyone who supports the group in any way deserves to be executed.” By this, he meant that extermination of the MEK members and supporters is a must without any legal basis, simply because they think differently from the mullahs and because their different approach is more appealing to ordinary Iranians, particularly young people, women and intellectuals. There can be no clearer indication of his involvement in the international crime of genocide.

Now, Agnès Callamard, the secretary general of Amnesty International, has called for Raisi to be investigated for crimes against humanity and for his involvement in murder, enforced disappearance and torture. The U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has also issued a damning report on the grave human rights violations that have occurred in Iran. His report expressed concern at the inhumane treatment and torture of supporters of opposition groups and their arbitrary conviction by revolutionary courts for the alleged crime of moharebeh or waging war against God, which carries the automatic death penalty. The opposition groups referred to by Guterres are mainly the PMOI/MEK, again showing that the U.N. has recognized the crime of genocide. In his report, António Guterres also expresses his concern over impunity from past violations such as the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, accusing the Iranian regime of “destroying evidence of the execution of political dissidents and harassment and criminal prosecution of families of victims calling for truth and accountability.”

In his pre-recorded video speech, filled with lies, cynical abuse, insults, praise of terrorism and threats to global peace and security, Raisi accused the U.S. of using sanctions as an act of war against Iran. He falsely claimed that U.S. sanctions had prevented medicines and COVID-19 vaccines from reaching the Iranian people, despite the fact that sanctions have never affected food, medicines, agricultural items and humanitarian products. It is only the criminal incompetence of the mullahs who ruled against utilizing any COVID-19 vaccines from the West and then defaulted on payments for Sinopharm and Sputnik vaccines from China and Russia, that has led to the appalling tragedy of over 440,000 deaths from the virus in Iran.

Claiming to be keen to send a message of “rationality, justice and freedom” to the world, Raisi, the hanging prosecutor, whose hands are dripping with the blood of his murdered victims, carefully avoided any mention of the mullahs’ massive financial and military support for proxy wars across the Middle East. As the key sponsors of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, the brutal Shiite militias in Iraq, the terrorist Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, the mullahs do nothing for rationality, justice and freedom. Raisi even heaped praise on the terrorist godfather Qasem Soleimani, killed by a U.S. drone strike.

Raisi predictably also called for all the signatories to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, to uphold their obligations under the terms of the deal. He omitted to remind the U.N. how his regime has repeatedly boasted of their serial breach of the agreement as they accelerate their enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade status. Raisi demanded the lifting of U.S. sanctions as the only way of ensuring the Iranian regime’s return to the terms of the JCPOA, despite widespread intelligence that the mullahs’ adherence to the nuclear agreement was always a fraud and their race to develop a nuclear bomb never faltered.

Raisi, as a genocidal murderer, presides over a government of assassins, terrorists and thieves. He must never be allowed to set foot in the West and he should be prevented from addressing international conferences, even remotely. The U.N. Security Council must now facilitate the prosecution of Ebrahim Raisi and other officials responsible for decades of atrocities and human rights violations, particularly the genocidal massacre of political prisoners in 1988. There must be no impunity for mass murderers like Raisi. The recent news that the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague has launched a full probe into Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines, for his involvement in crimes against humanity and murder will send shockwaves to Tehran. Duterte’s extra-judicial killings in his so-called war on drugs may now lead to his indictment, arrest and appearance in the ICC. Surely this must pave the way for a similar indictment against Raisi.
Today, we should send the clearest possible message to Ebrahim Raisi. His crimes will not be forgotten or forgiven. His victims and their families demand justice. He will be held to account for crimes against humanity, murder, human rights violation and genocide. There is a prison cell in The Hague waiting for him.

https://www.newsweek.com/butcher-tehran-terrified-stepping-foot-west-opinion-1633978

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Iran’s Answer to Biden’s Diplomacy

Mon, 19 Jul 2021 22:31:54 +0000

More attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and a kidnap plan in New York.

WSJ | The Editorial Board | July 18, 2021

Nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran adjourned last month and could resume after Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes office in August. But Iran’s behavior during the interregnum shows what it thinks about President Biden’s arms-control overtures.

Federal prosecutors said last week that an Iranian intelligence network planned to kidnap a U.S. citizen in New York and bring her to Iran. A dual U.S.-Iranian national, Masih Alinejad has reported extensively on human-rights abuses by the Islamic Republic. The journalist has built a large following on social networks while pushing for a tougher American approach to Tehran.

The prosecutors, who indicted four Iranian nationals, said Iranian intelligence has targeted others in Canada, the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Last year Tehran executed Ruhollah Zam, a France-based Iranian exile abducted while traveling in Iraq. Europe has previously imposed sanctions on Iran for planning terrorist attacks and murders on the Continent.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that an Iranian commander has encouraged Iran-backed militias to step up attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq and Syria. Shiite militias have attacked U.S. positions in Iraq at least 26 times since President Biden took office, estimates Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Biden ordered retaliatory airstrikes on the armed groups twice this year. But two American service members were wounded this month during a rocket barrage after the last pinprick U.S. retaliation.

Iran’s violations of the 2015 nuclear deal also continue. Lame duck President Hassan Rouhani says the country can enrich uranium to weapons-grade purity, or about 90%. So far it has stopped at 60%, but that’s well above the 3.67% allowed under the deal. The government is stockpiling other illicit material and ignoring its inspection obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Even Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov admitted, “Iran seems to be going too far.”

from conducting six rounds of indirect talks with the Iranians, who have demanded sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear compliance. According to Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Washington is willing to lift sanctions on the Supreme Leader; remove restrictions on all but one Iranian bank; and rescind the foreign terrorist designation for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He says the U.S. has also agreed to undo several executive orders and drop other sanctions.

Mr. Zarif could be lying, but his claims fit the pattern of Obama-Biden negotiations. The U.S. offers a concession in a spirit of goodwill, but Iran demands more. The U.S. makes another concession, and Iran demands more. That’s how John Kerry ended up with a nuclear deal that was time-limited, included a weak inspection regime of suspect sites in Iran, and neglected Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional imperialism.

Mr. Raisi has ruled out further talks on those issues until after both countries have returned to the nuclear deal. Add that to Iran’s continuing bad behavior on multiple fronts, and Mr. Biden has ample cause to walk away from the nuclear talks and keep the sanctions pressure on.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/irans-answer-to-bidens-diplomacy-11626649752

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The Rise of Raisi

Fri, 18 Jun 2021 12:56:03 +0000

Iran has rigged its election to favour Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner

Voters may favour staying home

The Economist | June 12, 2021

It is probably a bad sign when one of the few memorable moments in a presidential debate is an admission that the ballot is rigged. The candidates in Iran’s spent much of the televised event, held on June 8th, criticizing an incumbent who is not even on the ballot. Perhaps they felt there was little to discuss: most are hand-picked conservatives put there to lose. It fell to Mohsen Mehralizadeh, a former provincial governor of little note, to point out the obvious. The regime, he said, had aligned “sun, moon and the heavens to make one particular person the president”.

There are no free elections in Iran, where clerics wield ultimate authority and candidates may be disqualified for the flimsiest of reasons. Even by these standards, though, the presidential election scheduled for June 18th is shaping up as a farce. Nearly 600 candidates applied to replace Hassan Rouhani, who took office in 2013 and is barred by term limits from running again. The Guardian Council, a group of clerics and lawyers who vet candidates, allowed only seven on the ballot.

The cull removed any serious challengers who favour better economic and political ties with the West. Among them was Ali Larijani, a former speaker of parliament whose brother sits on the Guardian Council. Eshaq Jahangiri, the current vice-president, did not make the cut, nor did Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister who spent six years in prison for fomenting anti-regime protests. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the only layman to have served as president, was also disqualified, for the second time.

This is not meant to be an election, in other words. Rather it is meant as a coronation of Ebrahim Raisi, the head of the judiciary and a staunch hardliner who helped orchestrate the mass execution of political prisoners in the 1980s. Even he seems a bit embarrassed by the brazenness of the rigging. “We should make a more competitive election scene,” he said last month. Mr. Rouhani was more direct, calling the election “a corpse”.

Apart from Mr. Raisi, the meagre choices include Saeed Jalili, a former secretary of the national security council, and Mohsen Rezaei, a former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Both are conservatives who made unsuccessful bids for the presidency in 2013. The only non-hardliners are Mr. Mehralizadeh and Abdolnasser Hemmati, who led the central bank until last month. On his watch the rial crashed, losing two-thirds of its value in three years, largely owing to American sanctions reimposed in 2018 when Donald Trump disavowed the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

Hardly an alluring cv, that. But some Iranians have settled on Mr. Hemmati as a protest candidate. The others have reacted accordingly. In the first two debates the lower-ranked candidates spent much of their time ganging up on Mr. Hemmati, who complained that they were providing “cover” for Mr. Raisi. The front-runner, a soporific speaker, tried to float above the fray. The Guardian Council has reminded Iranians that it may disqualify candidates up until election day—a warning, perhaps, that Mr. Hemmati could be banished if he seems too popular.

There may be little risk of that. Many Iranians seem inclined simply to stay at home. A survey published earlier this month by a semi-official agency found that 32% would not vote “under any circumstances”. Just 34% said they would definitely vote, down from 43% in mid-May, before the Guardian Council winnowed the candidates (see chart). Calls for a boycott are mounting. There are even signs of discontent inside the IRGC, some of whose officers would like to wrest more power from the clerics. The Guardian Council barred some of the IRGC’s favored candidates, such as Saeed Mohammad, a former guardsman who runs a huge construction conglomerate. Another, Hossein Dehghan, a former defense minister, withdrew.

All of this would suggest a repeat of last year’s parliamentary election, which saw reform-minded candidates disqualified en masse. The turnout then was just 43%, down 19 points from the previous ballot and the lowest in Iran’s history. Though the regime cares little for democracy, it likes to maintain a respectable façade. Low turnout is seen as an embarrassment. Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, declared voting a religious duty and called failing to participate a “great sin”. In a speech on June 4th he also said that some candidates had been “wronged” by the vetting process and asked the Guardian Council to “restore their honor”. It refused.

The risk of mass protests, like the ones that followed a fishy presidential election in 2009, which Mr. Ahmadinejad won, seems remote. Most Iranians have lost faith in the system, reformists included. Mr. Rouhani’s eight years in office brought economic decline and scant social change. Still, Mr. Khamenei could have overruled the council and added more candidates to drum up enthusiasm. He chose not to.

His reasons may be partly tactical. The looming election of a hardliner has put pressure on American negotiators to conclude an agreement for re-entering the nuclear deal. The parties, sequestered in a Viennese hotel, are said to be making progress on a timetable for America to lift sanctions and for Iran to reimpose curbs on its nuclear program. Mr. Raisi, they fear, would toss a spanner in the works. His advisers would take time to get to grips with the file and might include ideologues like Mr. Jalili, whose negotiating style involves hours-long lectures on theology.

The supreme leader, who is 82, may also be writing his legacy. He has consolidated power in a narrow group of clerics as he prepares the country for his eventual successor. Mr. Raisi is thought to be a leading candidate, as is Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s second son. Some Iranians wonder if Mr. Raisi’s selection as president is in fact meant to undermine his chances of getting the top job. Most Iranian presidents, even those genuinely supported by voters, leave office with their popularity in tatters—and Mr. Raisi, the likely winner of a sham election with a low turnout, will not have much popularity to start with.

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline “The rise of Raisi”

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/06/10/iran-has-rigged-its-election-to-favour-ebrahim-raisi-a-hardliner

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